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Acceptance IntelligenceSynthetic data
Declined-payment recovery for GCC payment service providers · Modeled on Thawani, Oman's first licensed payment service provider
Executive overview · 30-day gateway book

Recover the declined checkouts the card-scheme rules let you recover.

Of 17,793 orders, 1,644 never settled: OMR 49,937 of merchant sales. The recommended policy recovers OMR 6,722 of it after 3DS friction, lifts order acceptance from 90.76% to 92.00%, and never reattempts a decline the issuer has marked final.

90.76%92.00%
Order acceptance, baseline → recommended
+124 bps vs baseline, net of 3DS friction
OMR 49,937
Checkout value lost to declines
1,644 orders · $129.9k
OMR 6,722
Net recovered, recommended policy
226 orders recovered, 6 lost to 3DS
+185 bps
What a 20% holdout would measure
Significant: 95% interval +81 bps to +289 bps. The engine expects +124 bps.
The recommended policy
Scheduled retriesOMR 4,654 · 167 orders
Visa categories 2 and 4 only; per-code timing; recurring charges wait for the salary window.
Network tokensOMR 1,450 · 36 orders
Expired stored cards (category 3) re-presented once with a refreshed credential.
Risk-based 3DSOMR 228 · 5 orders
Challenges only high-risk checkouts; a suspected-fraud decline is reattempted only with a challenge.
OmanNet fallback offerOMR 504 · 18 orders
Domestic debit declined on Visa or Mastercard: offer OmanNet at checkout. A new payment, not a reattempt.
Scheduled retries OMR 4.7kNetwork tokens OMR 1.4kRisk-based 3DS OMR 228OmanNet fallback offer OMR 504

3DS challenges cost 6 ordinary checkouts (OMR 114); risk-based 3DS is in the policy for chargeback liability shift on risky checkouts, not for acceptance.

The first three moves
  1. 1
    Retry only what the scheme rules allow, on a per-code schedule
    Category 2 and 4 soft declines: 167 orders, OMR 4,654. Largest pool: Omani bank B · do not honour (generic) (OMR 645).
  2. 2
    Refresh expired stored cards through network tokens
    Category 3 (expired card) on the scheme rails: 36 orders, OMR 1,450, one reattempt each.
  3. 3
    Offer OmanNet when a domestic debit card is declined on Visa or Mastercard
    59 customers offered it, 18 completed: OMR 504. Most common trigger: not permitted to cardholder.
Where the lost value sits

Orders that never settled, by the code of their final decline. Select a row for the rule behind it.

order level
Final declineVisa ruleOrdersLost valueRecovered (recommended)
Insufficient fundsCat 2239OMR 7,591OMR 693
Not permitted to cardholderCat 1256OMR 7,189OMR 385
Invalid card number or issuerCat 1193OMR 6,041no retry allowed
Expired cardCat 3191OMR 5,929OMR 1,450
Suspected fraudCat 2136OMR 4,485OMR 228
Closed accountCat 1146OMR 4,363no retry allowed
Do not honour (generic)Cat 498OMR 3,424OMR 2,300
Lost, stolen or pick-upCat 1106OMR 3,201no retry allowed
Daily authorization rate · attempts
Decline mix · attempts
1,851declines
Soft38.8% · OMR 22.4k
Hard48.2% · OMR 26.7k
Fraud13.0% · OMR 7.3k
Ask the analyst

Ask in plain words. The answer is a SQL query the server runs over the same ledger, the rows it returned, and a one-line reading that may only quote those rows.

After the gateway

1,418 orders stay lost after every lever here. Recovering those means reaching the customer, and paying only for the lift a holdout proves. That downstream stage is its own product.

See Relay Recover
What runs, what is sourced, what is synthetic
Runs for real
  • Recovery engine and scheme-rule checks
  • Holdout statistics (CI, p-value, MDE)
  • SQL interpreter over the ledger
  • CSV ingest with card-number guard
  • AI analyst behind a numeric guard
Anchored to public sources
  • Visa reattempt categories and cap
  • Insufficient-funds recovery prior
  • Network-token uplift (held below published)
  • 3DS challenge abandonment range
  • OMR/USD peg
Synthetic or illustrative
  • All 18,000 authorizations and merchants
  • Coefficients marked illustrative
  • No figure is a Thawani actual

Every figure on this console is computed from a synthetic ledger; none is a Thawani actual. Run the same engine on your own authorization export in ; sources are in .