Methodology, market & sources
Every number here is sourced inline and fact-audited against a primary source. Where a figure is a vendor claim or an industry estimate, it is badged directional.
An injury crash averages ~$200K; a crash with a fatality averages ~$3.6M (FMCSA 2025 crash-cost methodology).
↳ FMCSA - Crash Cost Methodology (2025 update) & 'Safety is Good Business'
Carriers using PSP lowered crash rates ~8% and driver out-of-service rates ~17% vs non-users (not 10%/20%).
↳ FMCSA Pre-Employment Screening Program (PSP) study figures
The cohort with the highest churn; ~92.7% long-run average for $30M+ carriers.
↳ American Trucking Associations (ATA)
Recruiting, screening/compliance, orientation/training, plus empty-truck revenue loss; quoted as a range.
↳ Industry estimates (Centerline / ATRI-cited ranges)
Spotter AI's Sentinel: a CDL upload pulls MVR/PSP/FMCSA/CDLIS into one report in as little as ~30s; claims up to ~75% screening-cost reduction.
↳ Spotter AI / Sentinel marketing (sentinel.spotter.ai) - vendor claim
The moat is defensible decisioning + auditability, not faster data access. The FMCSA assigns no score to PSP/MVR data, and carriers remain legally accountable for their own 49 CFR 391 qualification decisions - so a reconstructable, CFR-traced verdict is the product no incumbent owns.
- Time weights 3 / 2 / 1 (≤6 / ≤12 / ≤24 mo), >24 mo drops out.
- The +2 out-of-service severity uplift (legacy scale).
- The summed severity for one inspection within a BASIC capped at 30, before time-weighting - a capped total attributed worst-first. (v1 of this demo implemented this as a proportional rescale; an external audit caught it. The fix is fuzz-tested against the preserved v1 bug in the Workbench harness.)
- Both severity scales - legacy 1-10 and the Dec 1, 2025 revised 1-2 with the OOS-vs-Unsafe-Driving carve-out.
- Hard gates per 49 CFR 382 (Clearinghouse) and 391 (CDLIS status).
- Carrier-level SMS BASIC mechanics applied at the driver level (the real per-driver analog is PSP events; FMCSA's public Driver SMS is retired).
- The 0-100 index uses a fixed synthetic exposure proxy for demo stability - not an official FMCSA peer-group percentile. Real SMS produces relative percentiles.
- The peer band shown is illustrative, to signal we know the real system is relative.
- All data is synthetic; the decision record is an audit-trail rationale, not a statutory FCRA notice.
The highest-trust moment in the product: an external audit caught v1's two “machine-verified” proofs as tautologies. Here is exactly what changed.
The counterfactual check compared the engine’s delta against a value pre-set to the toggled item’s own points - so the two sides were the same number by construction. An external audit called it out.
Expected values now come from an independent recompute of the written spec - no shared aggregation code - and toggles re-run the whole pipeline before the cap is allocated.