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Incident root-cause analysis

After a crash or an out-of-service order: what happened, and what cannot be concluded yet

A model drafts the analysis because reading a dozen records fast is where it helps. Code decides what it is allowed to claim: every statement must cite a numbered source, and a root cause needs a corroborated fact about this incident. The rest is listed as abstained.

Rear-end collision, I-40 EB

Driver B-2207 · Borderline file

Tractor-trailer rear-ended a passenger vehicle in slowed traffic on I-40 eastbound. Minor injury reported, vehicle towed. Driver was cited at the scene. Post-accident drug/alcohol test was administered; result is pending. ELD pull is available.

  • knownDOT-recordable crash: injury + tow-away, driver cited at scene.
  • knownDriver has a following-too-close citation 5 months ago and a speeding event 3 months ago.
  • knownELD shows driver was in hour 9 of an 11-hour driving window - within HOS limits.
  • pendingPost-accident controlled-substances/alcohol test result.
  • pendingPolice report narrative / dash-cam footage.
Sources the analysis may cite
Retrieved by rules, not by the model. 22 rows.
  1. S1
    record · Driver B-2207
    Driver B-2207: CDL valid, Class A, 72 months of CDL experience; Clearinghouse not prohibited. Qualification decision under Carrier hiring standard v3.2: Manual review (Out-of-service order 11 months ago).
  2. S2
    fact · Incident fact (known)
    [KNOWN] DOT-recordable crash: injury + tow-away, driver cited at scene.
  3. S3
    fact · Incident fact (known)
    [KNOWN] Driver has a following-too-close citation 5 months ago and a speeding event 3 months ago.
  4. S4
    fact · Incident fact (known)
    [KNOWN] ELD shows driver was in hour 9 of an 11-hour driving window - within HOS limits.
  5. S5
    fact · Incident fact (pending)
    [PENDING] Post-accident controlled-substances/alcohol test result.
  6. S6
    fact · Incident fact (pending)
    [PENDING] Police report narrative / dash-cam footage.
  7. S7
    record · 49 CFR 392.2 · PSP
    Driver history: Following too closely (49 CFR 392.2), 5 months ago, 15 risk points.
  8. S8
    record · State conviction · MVR
    Driver history: Conviction: Speeding 6-10 mph over (State conviction), 3 months ago, 12 risk points.
  9. S9
    record · 49 CFR 393.47 · PSP
    Driver history: Brakes out of adjustment (49 CFR 393.47), 11 months ago, 12 risk points.
  10. S10
    record · State conviction · MVR
    Driver history: Conviction: Failure to obey a traffic control device (State conviction), 20 months ago, 5 risk points.
  11. S11
    policy · 49 CFR 382.303 · POL-01
    Post-accident testing: Following any DOT-recordable crash, the driver must be sent for post-accident controlled-substances and alcohol testing within the regulatory windows (alcohol within 8 hours, drugs within 32 hours) when the crash involves a fatality, a citation plus injury requiring medical treatment away from the scene, or a citation plus disabling damage requiring tow-away.
  12. S12
    policy · Carrier policy (internal) · POL-03
    Preventability review: The carrier safety team conducts a preventability review on every crash within 5 business days, classifying it preventable or non-preventable based on whether the driver could have reasonably avoided it. Preventability determinations are an internal carrier process and are distinct from FMCSA's separate Crash Preventability Determination Program.
  13. S13
    policy · 49 CFR 395.3 · POL-04
    Hours-of-service verification: On any incident, the safety manager pulls the driver's ELD records for the 8 days preceding the event to confirm the driver was within the 11-hour driving limit, the 14-hour window, and the 60/70-hour limit, and was not in violation at the time of the incident.
  14. S14
    policy · 49 CFR 396.11 / 396.3 · POL-05
    Vehicle maintenance trace: Where a crash or roadside inspection cites a vehicle-mechanical violation, the safety team retrieves the most recent driver vehicle inspection report (DVIR) and the unit's maintenance history to determine whether the defect was known and unaddressed.
  15. S15
    policy · 49 CFR 392.2 · POL-07
    Speed and following-distance standard: Drivers must maintain a minimum following distance appropriate to speed and conditions. Following-too-close and speeding citations are weighted heavily in the carrier's internal driver-risk review and trigger coaching after the first event.
  16. S16
    policy · Carrier policy (internal) / FMCSA PSP · POL-10
    Crash record corroboration: A crash appearing in a PSP/MCMIS record is a report of an event; it is not, by itself, a finding of driver fault. Fault and preventability require corroborating evidence (police report, ELD, telematics, witness statements) before an adverse conclusion is drawn.
  17. S17
    policy · 49 CFR 383.51 · POL-11
    Disqualifying-offense escalation: Reckless driving, a single 15+ mph-over speeding event, or any controlled-substances offense is treated as a major/disqualifying event and escalated to the Director of Safety regardless of overall score.
  18. S18
    policy · Carrier policy (internal) · POL-13
    Evidence-sufficiency standard: The safety team does not assign a root cause when the available evidence is insufficient. When the toxicology result, ELD pull, or police report is still pending, the file is held open and the conclusion is deferred rather than assumed.
  19. S19
    reg · 49 CFR 391.51 · REG-391.51
    Driver qualification files (49 CFR 391.51): The motor carrier must maintain a DQF for each driver, including the employment application, MVR(s), the annual review of driving record, the road-test or equivalent, the medical examiner's certificate, the Clearinghouse pre-employment query, the PSP record (where used), and the prior-employer safety-performance inquiries.
  20. S20
    reg · 49 CFR 383.51 · REG-383.51
    Disqualification of CDL holders (49 CFR 383.51): Lists major and serious offenses that disqualify a CDL holder, including driving under the influence, reckless driving, and two or more serious traffic violations in a three-year period in a CMV.
  21. S21
    reg · 49 CFR 395.3 · REG-395.3
    Maximum driving time (property) (49 CFR 395.3): A driver may drive a maximum of 11 hours after 10 consecutive hours off duty, may not drive beyond the 14th consecutive hour after coming on duty, and may not drive after 60/70 hours on duty in 7/8 consecutive days.
  22. S22
    reg · 49 CFR 382.303 · REG-382.303
    Post-accident testing (49 CFR 382.303): Following a qualifying crash, the employer must test the driver for alcohol (within 8 hours) and controlled substances (within 32 hours) where the crash involves a fatality, or a citation plus bodily injury treated away from the scene, or a citation plus disabling tow-away.
Severity scale

“Get the analysis” serves the stored run when there is one. “Re-run live” calls the model again, inside a daily budget; if the budget is spent you get the stored run or the rule-based analysis, labelled.

The grounding gate, applied to every answer
  1. Every timeline entry, root cause and policy trigger cites a numbered source that exists.
  2. A root cause cites at least one corroborated fact about this incident; history and policy alone cannot carry one.
  3. Below two corroborated facts, no root cause is asserted - the file is held open (policy POL-13).
  4. Anything removed is listed under Abstained, with the reason.

This incident has enough corroborated evidence for cited root causes.