Module 6 · Strategic Simulation

3-Year Scenario Planner

Anchored to the verified FY25 baseline - CR 117.5% (9M FY25), GWP ~₹18,159 Cr. Drag the levers to model the path toward the published FY28 105% CR target. Base / upside / downside.

Anchored to verified FY25 · ₹ Crores

Baseline (verified, public): combined ratio 117.5% (9M FY25, vs 109.3% FY24), gross written premium ~₹18,159 Cr FY25, ~20% CAGR. Elasticities: 1 ppt digital-mix ≈ 4 bps CR benefit; 1 ppt commission ≈ 0.8 ppt CR. Projections are illustrative; PBT base grosses the ~₹838 Cr FY25 PAT to pre-tax for the sensitivity fan.

Strategic levers

Drag to re-run the 3-year model. Values update instantly.

GWP Growth Rate (CAGR, %)

20.0%

5.0%35.0%

Verified FY25 baseline ~20% CAGR. Industry runs at ~14-17%.

Annual Combined Ratio drift (ppt)

-1.5 ppt/yr

-4.0 ppt/yr+3.0 ppt/yr

From the verified 117.5% baseline. ~−3.5 ppt/yr is needed to reach the published 105% FY28 target. Motor-TP reserving + expense ratio are the levers.

Commission rate (% of GWP)

12.5%

10.0%16.0%

Channel-mix shift and IRDAI EoM norms drive this

Digital mix of new business (%)

16%

10%60%

Verified ~16% blended digital NB today (direct + online). Target 35% by FY28. Elasticity: 1 ppt digital ≈ 4 bps CR benefit.

FY29 outcome

Given current lever settings

GWP

₹31,379 Cr

+20.0% CAGR

Combined Ratio

113%

from 117.5% · target 105%

Underwriting profit

-₹3,467 Cr

Loss

Investment income

₹2,667 Cr

@ 8.5% on float

Profit Before Tax

-₹800 Cr

vs FY25 ~₹1,117 Cr

Profit After Tax

-₹800 Cr

No DTA on losses

Footnote: no deferred-tax asset recognised on losses - a pre-tax loss flows straight to PAT.

Headline

Rule-based · deterministic

Base/mid case - CR improves to 113% from the verified 117.5% start, but doesn't fully reach the 105% FY28 target. PBT ~-₹800 Cr. Steady progress; expense ratio is the gating lever.

Assumption: scale dilutes expense ratio at 0.15 ppt per ppt of growth above the ~20% baseline (capped at 3 ppt/yr).

CSO read of this scenario

The API re-runs the same deterministic model server-side with your lever settings; the language model narrates and may not introduce a single number of its own.

Set the levers, then generate. Without an OPENROUTER_API_KEY the endpoint returns a deterministic scripted read - and labels it as such.

3-Year P&L trajectory

GWP + PBT bars, CR line - driven by current lever settings

PBT scenario fan

Current levers vs committed upside / downside preset lever sets

All three bands are full runs of the same elasticity model (lib/model.ts) - the 'Current' band re-computes on every slider move; upside/downside hold the preset lever sets. No decorative multipliers.

Year-by-year walk

Projection detail · editable levers feed this

Year	GWP	NEP	CR %	UW Profit	Inv Income	PBT	PAT
FY26	₹18,159 Cr	₹15,435 Cr	117.5%	-₹2,701 Cr	₹1,544 Cr	-₹1,158 Cr	-₹1,158 Cr
FY27	₹21,791 Cr	₹18,522 Cr	116%	-₹2,964 Cr	₹1,852 Cr	-₹1,111 Cr	-₹1,111 Cr
FY28	₹26,149 Cr	₹22,227 Cr	114.5%	-₹3,223 Cr	₹2,223 Cr	-₹1,000 Cr	-₹1,000 Cr
FY29	₹31,379 Cr	₹26,672 Cr	113%	-₹3,467 Cr	₹2,667 Cr	-₹800 Cr	-₹800 Cr