Independent product concept.

The platform

Six governed agents on one decision spine.

Each agent reads a file with a language model, hands every calculation and routing call to deterministic policy code, quotes the file for every fact it uses, and seals the result. The spine is shared; only the tools and gates change per decision.

Verified extractionPolicy in codeOverlay, not rip-and-replace
Forward-deployed services
Arbiter · warranted agents
Months of forward-deployed services
Weeks, as a productized overlay
Defect losses sit with the lender
A priced warranty on defect losses, once measured
Rip-and-replace the system
Overlay - writes back to your tools
An illustrative category contrast - services-led delivery versus a productized overlay. Not a benchmark against any named vendor.
The fleet

One spine, six agents

Commercial credit leads. Each further decision is a new agent on the same spine, not a new product.

Arbiter VerifierCore
Shared · all verticals

Ingests documents, extracts every field with provenance, and runs fraud / tamper checks - the evidence layer every other agent reads from.

reads: any document, image, feedL2
Arbiter AnalystBeachhead
Commercial lending

Computes DSCR, LTV and debt yield from quoted facts, tests covenants and leverage against credit policy, and drafts the credit memo. Exceptions go to a credit officer.

reads: tax returns, financial statements, rent rolls, leasesL1
Arbiter UnderwriterExpansion
Residential mortgage

Calculates and verifies self-employed qualifying income and DTI, then clears or holds the income condition.

reads: URLA, W-2, paystubs, tax returns, AUSL2
Arbiter RiskExpansion
Insurance underwriting

Triages submissions, checks appetite, and scores risk 0-5 with a cited rationale.

reads: ACORD, loss runs, SOV, MVRL1
Arbiter AdjusterExpansion
Insurance claims

Handles FNOL intake, verifies coverage, recommends reserves, and flags leakage / fraud.

reads: FNOL, declarations, photos, estimatesL1
Arbiter ReviewerCore
Shared · all verticals

Samples auto-rendered decisions for QC, watches for drift and fairness, and feeds the evaluation harness.

reads: decisions + outcomesL3
SPINE

Every agent inherits the same spine: evidence-verified extraction, deterministic policy gates from a versioned policy, a committed adversarial test suite and a hash-chained record. Adding a decision means adding an agent, not rebuilding the platform.

Run any agent

Every agent runs on the same engine

Pick an agent, load a test case or edit the file, and run it. Calculations, gates and the sealed record are real; the case files are synthetic.

Arbiter AnalystL1Commercial lendingcredit policy v4.1 · commercial real estate
4/4
test cases passing
3
calculations in code
5
policy gates
0
numbers produced by a model
Load a file

Unedited file: the engine runs its committed facts and no model is called. Synthetic data only. Identifiers are redacted before any model sees the text.

Try an edit:
extract, compute, gate, seal
Real vs simulated in this demo
Real Synthetic
REALDecision math, gates and route - deterministic code, executed on every run
REALExtraction checks and run record - live model on edited files, every quote verified; SHA-256 chain you can re-derive
SYNCase files and pilot targets - synthetic files; target metrics are labelled as targets
SYNExternal systems - LOS, AUS and bureau connections are target design, not live
Under the hood

The shared core every agent runs on

The target architecture: the same components under every agent. Select one for its job, parameters and an example.

Ingest- Turn messy paperwork into clean, traceable facts.
Reason- Decide the case the way an expert would.
Govern- Keep every action inside the rules, with sign-off.
Learn- Get better from every correction and outcome.
Integrate- Sit on top of the systems they already use.
IngestKitIngest
Ingestion & provenance

Turn any inbound artifact (PDF, image, fax, feed, email) into structured, provenance-tagged evidence.

Key parameters
  • extractor_routeOCR vs layout-LLM vs structured-parser, chosen per document class
  • confidence_floorper-field extraction confidence required to auto-accept (e.g. 0.94)
  • provenance_requiredevery field carries {source_doc, page, bbox, extractor, timestamp}
  • freshness_ttlmax age a document is valid for (e.g. paystub ≤30 days)
Example
A W-2 image → IncomeDocument{employer, wages, ytd, page:2, bbox, confidence:0.94}.
CoversIntegration patterns · golden datasets · starter kits
Trust dial

Autonomy is earned, one rung at a time

Nothing auto-renders until it's proven. Measured accuracy and decision risk set the tier, never a model's own confidence.

L1 · ApproveHuman approves each decision.

Worker decides; a human approves every case.

Example: Worker clears the income condition; underwriter clicks approve.

A worker earns its way up the ladder - it only auto-renders once the evaluation harness proves it on a golden set. The same file can sit at different tiers for different decisions.

Warranty economics

A warranty only works below its breakeven defect rate

The warranty premium is priced separately from the platform fee. Move the sliders to see where the book makes or loses money.

Assumptions

The warranty premium is priced separately from the platform fee, which pays for the work itself.

120,000
55%
$45
0.25%
$9.0K
Warranty book, per year
Illustrative
Auto-rendered decisions
66,000
Premium income
$3.0M
Warranty payouts
$1.5M
Defects covered
165
Warranty margin after payouts
$1.5M
Margin
50%
Breakeven defect rate (premium ÷ payout)0.50%

Below the breakeven rate the warranty book makes money; above it, it loses. That is why a warranty can only be written on a slice whose defect rate has been measured, not assumed.

The defect rate is an assumption, not a track record. It would be measured in shadow mode against senior-underwriter decisions, and no warranty would be priced before that baseline exists. The warranty covers financial loss only; regulatory accountability stays with the lender.

How it scales

Built once, configured per lender

Three layers, so each new lender and each new decision ships faster than the last.

1Core platform

Built once, shared by everyone.

  • WorkerRuntime
  • PolicyForge
  • Checkpoint
  • Ledger
  • Proofset
  • Institutionalizer
  • connector framework
2Domain package

The vertical IP - reused per industry.

  • CanonGraph ontology
  • policy packs
  • golden sets
  • worker state machines
  • reason-code maps
  • outcome metrics
3Customer config

Tenant-specific overlay - set per lender.

  • lender overlays
  • RBAC + approval matrix
  • connector credentials
  • autonomy tiers
  • branding
Defensibility

The moat stack

Ranked by depth. The deep ones compound per decision.

1

Judgment network effect

Every override and outcome flows into versioned policy + memory + recalibrated thresholds. Incumbents capture data - not structured judgment lineage with a closed loop to convert it.

Compounds: More decisions → better golden sets → higher safe-autonomy → more decisions auto-rendered → more outcome labels.

2

Governance as switching cost

Their guidelines, overlays, RBAC, approval matrices and audit history live in our ledger. Leaving means rebuilding their control framework and losing the replayable trail exams depend on.

Compounds: Every passed audit and accepted policy version deepens the dependency.

3

A priced decision warranty

A warranty on the financial loss from defects in auto-rendered decisions, written only on the slices where shadow-mode measurement supports it and priced from that measured defect rate. Regulatory accountability stays with the lender; only financial loss can be transferred.

Compounds: Lower measured defect rate → cheaper warranty → more volume → more outcome data → lower defect rate.

4

Accelerator-factory speed

Productized blueprints + a connector framework collapse time-to-value to weeks. Services-led rivals' delivery cost stays linear; ours falls with every customer.

Compounds: Each deployment hardens the domain packages used by the next.

5

Distribution via neutrality

No system of record and no balance sheet to protect, so the same verified decision layer can run on Encompass, nCino or CreditLens, next to whatever decision engine the lender already owns.

Compounds: More connectors → more deployable accounts → more decisions → feeds moats 1-3.

Out-flanking ICE Mortgage Technology
Their moat: Owns the leading US mortgage system of record (Encompass) and the data rails around it.
Our flank: Don't fight for the system of record. ICE has said AI will not make final approval, pricing or disclosure decisions; neither does Arbiter. Compete on what reaches the underwriter: a computed, gated, evidence-cited draft with a replayable record, on Encompass or any rival system.
Out-flanking Rocket
Their moat: A captive, decades-deep proprietary loan-outcome dataset at scale.
Our flank: Rocket's flywheel is built to serve Rocket, so its decisioning is not for sale to the lenders it competes with. Arbiter does not try to out-data it: its value to a lender is that lender's own policy, verified and replayable. Any cross-lender learning would be opt-in and limited to policy-performance statistics, never borrower data.
Agent specification standard

What every agent must define before it touches a live file

Fifteen sections, from decision scope and evidence rules to the evaluation harness and explicit non-goals.

01Problem & wedge

The thin-slice workflow, why it's the highest-leverage entry, what breaks today.

02Users & personas

Who operates / approves / owns, and their jobs.

03Digital-worker job spec

Inputs, the decisions it renders, the decisions it must NOT render, its autonomy tier.

04Workflow / state machine

States, transitions, guards, terminal decisions, recovery points.

05Data & document model

Ontology entities, document classes, required fields, provenance + freshness.

06Agent & tool design

Typed tool registry, model routing, step/token budgets, determinism-vs-LLM split.

07Policy & guardrails

Policy pack (rules + citations), RBAC, approval matrix, control packs.

08HITL & escalation

Autonomy tiers, confidence thresholds, risk gates, escalation paths + SLAs.

09Explainability & audit

Reason-code set (mapped to regulation), citation format, hash-chained record schema.

10Eval harness & golden set

Golden dataset, regression gates, fairness tests, drift monitors, shadow-mode plan.

11Integrations

Target systems, connector, sync mode, field mappings, write-back permissions.

12Metrics & SLOs

The 3-4 outcome metrics + operational SLOs (latency, auto-rate, QC rate).

13Learning loop

Override-to-policy threshold, memory config, bandit reward, outcome-label lag.

14Rollout / thin-slice plan

Shadow → L1 → L2 → L3 gates, success criteria per phase, next slice.

15Non-goals

Explicitly out-of-scope decisions, systems and edge cases (caps scope + liability).

Insurance, on the same spine

Underwriting appetite, submission completeness and claims leakage run on the same engine and test suite, including a poisoned-extraction attack on a repeat-VIN claim.

Open the insurance appendix